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When you consider the vast quantities of money made by the people working on Wall Street as well as in the City of London you would naturally come to the conclusion that these people must know all there is to understand about financial markets.
However the real truth is most do not actually back their own views on the markets as they don't actually know what the marketplace is going to do. For the cash they earn is from the fees they charge out to their customers, investment management and commission fees generally.
To clarify, I'm not saying people doing work in finance don't know anything. They're indeed very smart and very clever and earn a whole lot of respect. But their cash comes from facilitating the mechanics of the system ie. client relationships, doing transactions, and doing sales etc. Not from predicting what is going to go up or down on the market.
Stockbrokers are full of confidence and will bounce a lot of facts and figures when communicating to future prospects. In contrast, more details doesn't always lead to a greater degree of market predictability. The information a prospect needs to understand is does that broker making a living from picking stocks? The answer generally is no. The broker is comfortably getting income from the client fees compensated to selling and buying on their own behalf. A market view is easy to attain when it's with somebody else's money. More to the point it can be simpler to gamble when it's not your own pocket fueling that risk.
The specialists in the media provide the impression that the markets are easier to foretell than they actually are. Watching a reporter on the tv or reading a columnist in the newspaper says that the cost is going this way, the commodity is doing this, that and also the other etc... all of it comes across as being easy.
The media put out this kind of message that everything may be forecasted. A message that is persistent and that is easy to be seduced by. No one could really blame you for feeding off this over simplified view and come away thinking 'I could have a go at that, I could actually make some money out of that.' The enticing read within the newspaper or report on the television may make plenty of people fall in to a false feeling of that the markets are easy to keep one step in advance of.
The media has a job to do... and that's the job of reporting the financial arena so it is not as easy as just placing a hand of blame on their shoulders. But it is what it's, as in many media... a sort of form of gossip, and unfortunately the job of financial guesswork is within the realms of 'entertainment,' the reader must find the topic interesting and entertaining to some degree, it has to be just a little pumped up and have a specific gloss to come across in a palatable way for all those watching or reading the story else their attention would just drop off. The financial markets are a difficult beast however the media underplays those difficulties.
Anybody thinking about trading or investing will have their view largely shaped by media reporting. It is very important when listening to the experts that you learn to be critical of what you read and hear.
So if the experts and media are unreliable, how do you learn about markets? The most effective answer is in an attempt to start to know what has happened within the past. Like most things homework is everything. Spend some decent time looking into how prices have behaved within the past. I'm not talking about extensive number crunching or a lot of time within the library, just researching how prices have reacted to big influences in several market cycles. To get a comprehension of the dollar-euro rate as being an example it really is pointless trying to form a valid view without knowing where it has been and why. The euro value has fluctuated over the last number of years and you will discover reason behind this increase and decrease, big reasons, big picture influences including budget deficits, trade balances, interest rates, economic growth to name a number of. Your own research is the most valuable.